Fed on track to hike: USD long

Expectedly, Yellen didn't provide anything enlightening yesterday. The market realized the Fed is still on track to hike rates this year, with March being a "live" meeting (although the hike probability is not high by any means for that meeting). Perhaps traders are still remembering 2016 when the Fed didn't hike as often as had been expected. Traders should forget all about 2016! The Fed entered its rate hike cycle, and it will hike again. Traders should also pay less attention to Trump statements. Let's wait for actual implementations of his promises instead. Regarding his USD rhetoric, it's meaningless. If his administration will deliver on his stimulus promises, which I think it will, that will be inflationary and ultimately positive for the US economy, i.e. it will give Yellen & Co. even more reason to continue hiking rates. It will also be important for the Fed to prove it is an independent institution; the US president has no business pressuring his nation's central bank. Everything is playing into the USD long story at the moment. Don't let Trump noise fool you into thinking anything else.

EURUSD Short 15/02/2017

Quick look at NZDJPY: After I chickened out of putting on a NZDJPY long trade post-RBNZ, the pair is looking constructive again. Trendline support still valid. On hold but definitely interesting.

NZDJPY Daily 15/02/2017Open positions as of 15/02/2017 10:19am CET:
EURUSD short from 1.0795, unrealized return: +2.37%

Realized YTD return: +4.34% from 3 trades
Total YTD return: +6.71% from 4 trades

Expect nothing new from Yellen today

Fed chair Janet Yellen will deliver her semi-annual congressional testimony before the Senate Banking Panel today. I expect nothing new from her today. It's too soon since the latest Fed meeting on 1 February to change course, and the dollar is too strong to hint at a March rate hike, in my opinion. I maintain my EURUSD short position. By the way, US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn's resignation is a non-event for FX, ignore it.

DXY Index 14/02/2017Open positions as of 14/02/2017 08:45am CET:
EURUSD short from 1.0795, unrealized return: +1.77%

Realized YTD return: +4.34% from 3 trades
Total YTD return: +6.11% from 4 trades