Only a few days ago nobody was looking at Europe, despite the many challenges faced by the euro area this year. All eyes were on Trump, the US dollar fell after negligible comments made by the president and his staff of economic advisers. What a difference a weekend makes! It's Tuesday, the EUR is weakening for a second day in a row and miraculously the whole narrative by market watchers has changed. Analysts are highlighting the risk from European election outcomes that might endanger the euro zone, possibly even the European Union. It is as if market commentators woke up and, in unison, had the same thought: Anxiety now! The switch has been flicked, USD risk-off has been turned into EUR risk-off. It's a new week, so let's have a new story to tell. To be frank, I'm fed up with researchers and self-proclaimed journalists (who are doing a lot of things these days, but definitely not serious journalism) wanting to explain to me why an asset has moved in a certain direction after the fact. Instead, they should be separating the important news from all the noise (mostly coming from Trump these days), study the evidence revealed by their research and then make appropriate deductions about the state of the market as well as implications this might have for the future. Too often analysts change their opinion even after minuscule changes in asset prices, instead of showing any sign of confidence in their own research. How can this type of market analysis be taken seriously? Don't even get me started on journalism... The Economist aside, there's little I can read nowadays without having a total freak-out. Anyway, let's not digress: I'm standing firmly by my EUR short / USD long call.
Realized YTD return: +0.7% from 2 trades
Total YTD return: +4.5% from 4 trades