Watch NZDJPY ahead of Abe-Trump, RBNZ

I'm still keeping an eye on NZDJPY. The pair failed to break through its December 2016 high at 83.741. Currently supported by its 50-day moving average (weak support). I still favour NZD long / JPY short, but Abe-Trump today and RBNZ tomorrow keep me on the sidelines for the time being. The JPY has shown some unexpected strength in January so far.

NZDJPY Daily 08/02/2017The NZD is slowly approaching its 2014 high at 82.01, as measured by the trade-weighted NZD index. After a jump in inflation expectations, the RBNZ may be inclined to comment on the kiwi's strength to avoid an extended move higher. While the Reserve Bank might well fight kiwi strength, I don't expect any attempt to weaken the currency. Benchmark rates likely to remain unchanged tomorrow.

NZD Trade Weighted 08/02/2017Open positions as of 08/02/2017 08:51am CET:
EURTRY short from 4.0524, unrealized return: +1.75%
EURUSD short from 1.0795, unrealized return: +1.3%

Realized YTD return: +0.7% from 2 trades
Total YTD return: +3.75% from 4 trades