The Turkish central bank will meet on Tuesday to decide on interest rates. It is expected to raise the benchmark repo rate by 50bp to 8.5%, although it should perhaps hike more (100+bp) to credibly defend the Turkish lira. The central bank might also continue to raise its FX swap auctions rate in an effort to get market swap rates higher as well. This would increase the cost of selling the TRY and - in lieu with a hike in the repo rate - provide additional support to the currency. I'm selling EURTRY at 4.0524.
Realized YTD return: +0.7% from 2 trades
Total YTD return: +0.7% from 3 trades