Draghi to serenade markets today, likely non-event

Mario Draghi will preach his usual sermon of persistent risks to the growth outlook today. Like most analysts, I don't expect any changes in the ECB's rhetoric. Draghi & Co. will likely resist changes to their outlook for policy rates or the APP despite the recent uptick in inflation.

With Yellen signalling "a few" rate hikes per year through 2019, this is the ECB's chance to keep the EUR at the current low or even lower levels vis-à-vis the USD. I'm not paying a lot of attention to Trump's statement that the USD was too strong, by the way, because the dollar's path will be determined by the Fed, not by the tweeting POTUS.

Open positions as of 19/01/2017 9:00am CET: Flat

Realized YTD return: +0.7% from 2 trades